VTC Research – Osisko Metals – Announces New Brunswick-Based, Critical Minerals Spin-Out category mailing-list

Velocity Trade Capital Research Commentary
September 16, 2026

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Osisko Metals Incorporated

Announces New Brunswick-Based, Critical Minerals Spin-Out

  • Osisko Critical Minerals Corporation to be a new exploration company (“NB Copper Project”)
  • Osisko shareholders to retain a minority interest; Gaspé Copper potential
  • Trading at 0.44x P/NAV for a +13B lbs Cu (18M lbs Cu eq), Québec-focused Cu developer

NB Copper Project: A New Copper Exploration Opportunity

  • We are maintaining our C$3.00/sh target and Outperform rating afterOsisko Metals Incorporated (OM:TSX, “Osisko”) announced its intent to create Osisko Critical Minerals Corporation, a spin-out comprised of non-core projects located in NB (Figure 1), whereby current Osisko shareholders would hold a minority interest. The combined land package amounts to ~645 sq km containing several large-scale exploration targets. The new company is to be led by John Burzynski as Chief Executive Officer (currently Executive Chairman of Osisko). No further details of timing, minority ownership or size were given. In the meantime, Osisko continues advancing its flagship, past-producing Gaspé Copper mine (100%, eastern QC).
  • Focus of the Spin-Out: The company outlined that geological conditions of the NB properties are analogous to those observed at the Gaspé Copper Project, where similar mineralization and skarn/porcellanite alteration has been identified. These properties were previously explored for high-grade skarn-style mineralization but limited in scale from sparse shallow drilling (see historical resource at Bathurst Mining Camp, Figure 2); however, Osisko believes there is potential for Gaspé Copper-like, large-scale, low-grade bulk-tonnage Cu systems.
  • History of NB Assets: The company has included legacy assets, recent staking of ground and also three recent option agreements (from January to September 2026) in compiling a critical mass from which to form the new company. Compared to Gaspé Copper, the NB land package represents 5.0 km by 2.0 km area, greater than Gaspe Copper‘s system of 3.5 km by 2.5 km. The projects are lacking systematic drill testing and, in some areas, no basic government data (ie. grass roots).
  • Leverage to Cu Price: Based on the size of the resource and long (+40 years) mine life, for each +/-10% change to Cu prices, we calculate a +/-23% change to NAV. As such, at US$6.50/lb Cu price, NAV/sh (2026E) would equate to ~C$6.25. In addition, the company’s resource includes Mo and Ag. Sensitivity to these prices is more muted, less than +/- 3.0% change in NAV for +/-10% changes in underlying Mo, Ag prices.
  • Catalysts for 2026/27: Additional exploration results from the company’s ~50,000 m drill program, followed by a resource update in Q1 2027 (including all 50,000 m drill program) and PEA in Q3 2027. Longer term (2027 to 2028), dewatering the historical pit, FS and Environmental and Social Impact Assessment required.

Valuation

  • We previously have not ascribed any value to the non-core, spin-out assets as part of our C$3.70/sh (2026E) NAV (Figure 3). For every ~C$10M of minority holding, would equate to ~C$0.01/sh in NAV. Our valuation is based solely on Gaspé Copper, which we have estimated as a large tonnage (+160,000 tpd, ~300M lbs/yr Cu) mining scenario appropriate for such a large, multi-billion lbs Cu resource, equating to C$3.6B NPV. As such, we see the possibilities for Osisko of: i) a funding or JV partner to be sought in the future (based on the scope of capital, ~C$3.0B); ii) an acquisition target by a larger copper producer or gold company whereby strategic appetites are also leaning toward Cu production. Our target multiple of 0.81x P/NAV is in line with other copper developers’ average of 0.78x (trading at 0.44x, Figure 4) after a rapid and recent rise from US$5.50/lb at the end of March touching +US$6.80/lb. Our target multiple reflects: i) Osisko’s pre-financed, near PEA, developer status; ii) two projects of size and scope (including Pine Point); iii) ample amounts of regional infrastructure already in place at both projects; iv) attractive mining jurisdictions (QC, NT); v) potential for a material resource addition; and vi) a significant open-pit, low strip Cu deposit (we expect to decrease as shallower skarn zones are added to upcoming resource).

Paul O’Brien

Senior Mining Analyst

T +1 (416) 323 2150
E paul.obrien

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