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Osisko Metals Incorporated

Resource Expansion Potential Continuing to the Southwest

• Drilling around Needle Mtn demonstrating above resource grade intercepts
• Leverage to +/-10% change in Cu = +/-23% change in NAV (less than +/-3% change for Mo, Ag)
• Trading at 0.44x P/NAV for a +13B lbs Cu (18M lbs Cu eq), Québec-focused Cu developer

Above Resource Grade Intercept: 256 m at 0.85% Cu Outside of Resource

• We are increasing our target price from C$2.85 to C$3.00/sh while maintaining our Outperform rating afterOsisko Metals Incorporated (OM:TSX, “Osisko”) announced additional drill results from its 50,000 m program at Gaspé Copper (28 intercepts from 12 holes, Figure 1). We note, eight of the 12 holes were focused on the South-west Target Area (outside of main resource) with a high-grade intercept of 0.85% Cu over 256 m (Hole 30-1228) located 800 m west of the 2026 resource model and starting at 33 m depth, demonstrating potential for the mineralized system continuing beyond the current pit limits and potential for grade improvement around Needle Mountain. Intercepts from infill drilling (Holes 30-1233, 30-1235) at the south end of the 2026 resource model returned higher than average grades up to 0.67% Cu (compared to the Cu only resource grade 0.28% Cu total M&I, Inf.) over attractive widths of ~180 m to ~260 m. Intercepts to the south continue to demonstrate potential for resource and pit expansion beyond the April 2026 resource update. Currently, seven rigs are in operation.
• Highlights and Summary of Drilling: In addition to the main intercept, the company also released 67.7 m over 0.3% Cu (30-1234) and 49.7 m of 0.74% Cu (30-1225), both expansion holes on the western limit of the Needle Mountain pit. Hole 30-1226, an in-pit expansion hole, resulted in 101 m of 0.44% starting from 43 m depth in an area where such mineralization was not expected from historical drilling. As per the company’s presentation, from its large program, there are four more holes planned to the south of the South-west Target Area (ie. southern extent of Needle East Mountain).
• Leverage to Cu Price: Based on the size of the resource and long (+40 years) mine life, for each +/-10% change to Cu prices, we calculate a +/-23% change to NAV. As such, at US$6.50/lb Cu price, NAV/sh (2026E) would equate to ~C$6.25. In addition, the company’s resource includes Mo and Ag. Sensitivity to these prices is more muted, less than +/- 3.0% change in NAV for +/-10% changes in underlying Mo, Ag prices.
• Catalysts for 2026/27: Additional exploration results from the company’s ~50,000 m drill program, followed by a resource update in Q1 2027 (including all 50,000 m drill program) and PEA in Q3 2027. Longer term (2027 to 2028), dewatering the historical pit, FS and Environmental and Social Impact Assessment required.

Valuation

• As part of our C$3.70/sh (2026E) NAV (Figure 2), we have estimated a large tonnage (+160,000 tpd, ~300M lbs/yr Cu) mining scenario appropriate for such a large, multi-billion lbs Cu resource, equating to C$3.6B NPV for Gaspé Copper. As such, we see the possibilities of: i) a funding or JV partner to be sought in the future (based on the scope of capital and project); ii) an acquisition target by a larger copper producer (or gold company whereby strategic appetites are also leaning toward Cu production). Our target multiple of 0.81x P/NAV (increased from 0.77x P/NAV previously) is in line with other copper developers’ average of 0.81x after a rapid and recent rise from US$5.50/lb at the end of March touching +US$6.80/lb recently; however, OM is currently trading at 0.44x. Our target multiple reflects: i) Osisko’s pre-financed, near PEA, developer status; ii) two projects of size and scope (including Pine Point); iii) ample amounts of regional infrastructure already in place at both projects; iv) attractive mining jurisdictions (QC, NT); v) potential for a material resource addition; and vi) a significant open-pit, low strip Cu deposit (we expect to decrease as shallower skarn zones are added to upcoming resource).

Paul O’Brien

Senior Mining Analyst

T +1 (416) 323 2150
E paul.obrien